Copernican Principle Calculator

Have you ever wondered how long humanity will survive? Or how long your neighbor will wait to cut the grass in the front yard? Or how long Kim Kardashian will remain married to Kanye West? Well, there is an app for that. Okay, maybe not an app just yet (maybe coming soon?). But you can navigate over to my new "Copernican Principle Calculator" and find out how long anything will last. I didn't invent the technique. You can read all about the history of the Copernican Principle elsewhere. However, I do create this little calculator, which applies the technique to predict the minimum and maximum time you can expect something -- anything -- to last. All you need to know is how long it has existed so far. Predict how long your current romantic relationship will last! Or how long you'll keep driving that old car! See what you can discover. For a great, detailed discussion of how the Copernican Principle can be used, read this 2018 article by Will Koehrsen.

Pinewood Derby 2013

Pinewood Derby 2013, a set on Flickr.

Another year and another fun Pinewood Derby in Pensacola. Jude's car finished in above-average position in each of the six heats (6 cars in each of the 6 races). His car (named "The End") finished 2nd twice and 3rd three times. More importantly, he had a great time making the car with me and playing with his Cub Scout pals at the event.

Pinewood Derby 2012

Pinewood Derby 2012, a set on Flickr.

Photos of Jude and Ruby at the local 2012 Pinewood Derby in Pensacola, Florida, for Pack 608.

Jude's Star Wars landspeeder Pinewood Derby car

Jude and I built a Pinewood Derby race car this week. He decided he wanted a Star Wars design. Then, he decided, specifically, on the Luke Skywalker landspeeder. He helped with sanding, painting, and wheel attachment. He did a great job on the paint color mixing and painting the main parts of the design.

The car finished third overall in his age group (Tiger Cubs) and won the Most Original Design award. He gets to go to the district competition next, since he was in the top three.

We were mostly just aiming to make this car look cool. But, his car was surprisingly fast, getting off to a huge lead in the first run, and finishing first in three of the five runs his car completed, and a close second in the other two. (Someone accidentally removed a shim under the track before one of his heats, creating a bump in the track that sent his car flying through the air, off the track. I don't think they re-ran that heat, but I'm not sure why.)

Oil slick threatens Gulf coast

PBS Newshour just ran a great story on the status of the Gulf of Mexico oil rig disaster that's unfolding daily.



"Crews in the Gulf of Mexico began to burn parts of an oil slick from last week's rig explosion that is now threatening the coastline. Judy Woodruff talks to two experts about the challenges of stopping the leak and getting rid of the oil spill."

You can also download the MP3 of the report.

CNN has good overall coverage. Latest news: "The oil spill from last week's deadly rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico has increased to 5,000 barrels a day -- five times more than the original estimate...."

Ruby and Me on a snowy day

Have you seen this great photo of Ruby and me?

Ruby and me at the Wyndmoor train station in Chestnut Hill.

End of winter update 2010

The Barger family had a great time in the record-breaking snowstorms this winter in Philly. This week, as winter is turning to spring, we headed out to Hershey on a family road trip. We had a great time. The kids loved the Chocolate World tour ride (see photo).

Fall 2009 - another infrequent update

I haven't had much time for blog updates, so here's a quick summary of what's up. My summer job at a mass torts firm provided some great insight into the practice of law and some great practical experience.

Now, I'm in my third year of law school (a.k.a. 3L). I'm taking the following courses: Taxation, Bankruptcy, Criminal Procedure, Cyberspace Law, and a clinical program at SEPTA's Tort Litigation department.

In the SEPTA clinical, I've been representing SEPTA in the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas, in arbitration proceedings. I won my first case last week. It's a great experience, because they let fill the entire lawyer role at the arbitration, including the opening statement, calling witnesses, questioning, cross-examination, raising and defending objections, and closing arguments.

Charline, Jude, and Ruby are doing fine.

Ruby's getting better and better at communicating. She loves to open books and "read" them aloud, making up cute stories about the pictures. She's also great at making up stories while she's lying in bed, just before falling asleep. One recent story was about a family of dogs who find and befriend a baby dragon. Great stuff.

Jude has developed some strong martial arts skills, especially his roundhouse kick, which he figured out on his own. He and Ruby still like Scooby Doo more than anything else, but Jude is getting more interested in super heros every day. He has some Spiderman and Batman and Superman books. He wants some Flash and Red Tornado (an obscure DC character) comics next. Jude's still going to pre-school at the co-op, which he loves.

Charline has been doing some work as a board member for the Maternal Wellness Center, which she really enjoys. Of course, she always has her hands full at home, with Ruby and Jude. She continues to manage the www.GermantownAvenueParents.com blog also.

My other blog

Did I mention that I have another blog page at JamesBarger.blogspot.com? I don't know if it's any better or if I'll use it more. But, it's there.

An Update

Since I haven't posted in a while, here's an update. I'm getting ready for the third and final year of law school (the "3L") year. I'm working at a mass torts law firm in Florida for the summer, with travel to Philadelphia a few times, for cases in federal and state courts there. Charline, the kids, and the dog came to Florida with me. They're having fun at the local beaches and parks. Jude and Ruby are learning to swim.

In my final year of law school, I'm going to earn course credit for working at SEPTA, in the tort claims division, and at the Bucks County District Attorney's office. These clinicals are going to provide some excellent hands-on education, and will help me decide exactly which branch of law I want to practice.

Lately, I've been using twitter (twitter.com/JamesBarger) and facebook (facebook.com/james.d.barger) a bit more. And, I've opened a Google Voice account (you can call me from a button on JamesBarger.com). All very useful tools.

Jude explains Muffin Land and a fast shadow

I have some old notes about Jude stuff I need to post, so here it is... (There will be more about Ruby as she continues to learn how to express herself and get around and do Ruby things.)

Jude Notes:

Jude said...

Jude was looking for his "blue green duck dinosaur" and he said...

"Maybe it's in the universe.
Or, maybe it's on the planet Nowhere.
Or, maybe it's in Muffin Land.
Muffin Land is on the bobbdum of the earth. Muffins in Muffin Land can fly, because they have wings. But, the muffins don't have any bones. They just have head bones. They cannot see where they are going."

I said I would like to go to Muffin Land someday. Jude said...

"You can't go to Muffin Land, because it is very far away."

I said maybe I could go there on a big ship. Jude said...

"But a ship would be too slow. If you had a dragon, you could fly to Muffin Land, because dragons can fly very, very far. Dragons can fly for 20 and a half miles."

I said it would be really fun to fly to Muffin Land on a dragon. I think that's what I'll do. Jude said...

"You should bring a coat, because it's very cold down there on the bobbdum of the earth in Antarctica."

MORE Jude Notes:

rat wolf... did a pig sound, then a chicken, then made a crazy sound... "That's a rat wolf," he said.

"Not exactly."
Said he saw his shadow and ran... "Did you get away from it?" I asked.

He paused and said very seriously, "Not exactly."

He went on to explain... "...and it was riding on a little bike and it went (zoom) right past me.
and then it was riding backwards."

He's also talked about something called a "rat plane... waits for all the children to get on...
...then takes off... ...has a big dance room..."

STILL MORE Jude Notes:

"In the aquarium they have little holes that go in the water and i put the crayon in there and I put a toy shark in there... and a beetle car. A REAL ONE."

"WHY ARE YOU USING LITTLE LETTERS?" he asked.

Ruby's words

Lately, Ruby loves to use her sign language for "monkey." Anytime anyone says "monkey," she smiles and does the sign -- which is sort of like a gorilla, beating its chest -- and makes a little monkey sound.

Jude's quote of the day

"I'm going to kick you out of the universe on Sunday!" -- said with his pseudo-angry, scrunched-up nose expression and while flexing Hulk-style.

Later the same day...

"I'm going to kick you off the planet on Saturday!"

Ruby's antics

Lately, Ruby has been getting really aggravated anytime someone tells her "no, no" or "no touch." She immediately stops what she's doing, but she also looks right at you and starts to cry. It's really hard to maintain one's resolve in the face of that.

Mostly, though, she's a happy, smiling, little angel. I guess that's why it's sort of funny to Charline and me when she make a fuss over simply being told "no."

She loved swinging at the playground yesterday. And, she ran all over the place, very independently, without worrying at all about how far away she was getting or where she was going.

Did I mention her "chicken dance?" Adorable stuff. Anytime she hears someone say "chicken," even in passing, she starts to do her chicken impersonation. Hilarious.

Jude's quote of the day

This is actually a quote from a while back, which I just remembered...

Jude: "Did you say that, or did I say it?"

Jude's Blue-Eared Crab

While we were talking in the kitchen today, Jude said "I have something to tell you Dada. I love you." And, of course I told him I love him too. Then, he said "And I have something else to tell you. When I was four [note: he's currently only 3 1/2 years old], I ate a blue eared crab."

I asked him about this blue eared crab and he described it.

"It has five legs and it eats sharks and it can eat things that are bigger than it is." [This last part was obviously inspired by something we saw in one of his fish books recently, about a deep-sea creature that eats things larger than itself.]

He then went on to describe the orange-eared crab, which is 20 1/2 feet high, and the gray-eared crab, which has four legs. He had other details about them, which I've already forgotten.

It's not the moon. It's not the movie. It's just us.

The Barger family went over to the town of Media today, to visit an arboretum, visit a town festival, and see an outdoor showing of the movie "Cars" on a baseball field.

After the arboretum, and after a walk through the town, we were headed back to our van and we saw the half-moon in the sky. The sky was still bright, but the moon was vivid. Charline and I pointed it out to Jude, who always appreciates moon sitings. He and talked about why we only saw half of it.

Then, Charline and I told him we were on our way to see a movie outside. We didn't tell him it was his favorite film, but he was pretty happy about the idea anyway. But, then, after a moment of reflection, as we were getting into the van, he said something profound.

Jude said "It's not the moon. It's not the movie. It's just us."

He was right. Well said, Jude. Well said. It was a wonderful day for the whole family, from start to finish. But, it wasn't about what we saw or did. It was just great being together, the whole family, for the whole day and night.

Jude's quote of the day

"Remember, when you cough into your hand, your hand coughs back at you."

Said when his mother suggested it's a good idea to put one's hand in front of one's mouth when coughing. I think he's been reading Nietzsche:

"He who fights with monsters should be careful lest he thereby become a monster. And if thou gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will also gaze into thee." - from Beyond Good and Evil, by Friedrich Nietzsche, at Chapter IV: "Apophthegms and Interludes," #146.

Jude says...

"I'm not afraid of monsters, or not even... giant spider webs!"

He says he's "not afraid of anything" when we try to tell him something on TV is too scary for him to watch. Today, he got really specific, with the above quote. He said this with his nose crinkled up in his you-better-watch-out expression.

Jude's quote of the day

"When I jump up, my hat jumps up too."
-- Jude, commenting on his "bouncing hat" while sitting in the mini-van